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Trade Policy Shifts
This report was developed by OhBEV, an alcohol marketing agency working at the intersection of brand, data, and culture across wine, spirits, beer, and emerging beverage categories. We created this outlook to move beyond surface-level “trend lists” and provide decision-makers with a clear, experience-driven view of what is actually reshaping the global whiskey market - from consumer behavior and pricing power to distribution dynamics, regulation, and climate risk.
Major international trade decisions will heavily influence whiskey’s future. In recent years, the U.S. and its trading partners have floated dramatic tariff changes on alcohol, and 2025-2026 could see those policies stick or unravel. For example, the European Union paused its long-threatened retaliation on U.S. spirits in mid-2025. A coalition of American distillers notes that the EU agreed to suspend a planned 25% tariff on American whiskey imports, extending the moratorium through early February 2026. This move (linked to broader U.S.-EU trade talks) delays any immediate pain for U.S. distillers in Europe. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has been negotiating new trade terms and imposing its own tariffs. Under a recent U.S.-Japan trade framework, the U.S. set a 15% tariff on Japanese whiskey imports (effective August 2025). The U.S. also announced a 35% tariff on most Canadian goods from August 2025, though goods qualifying under the USMCA - likely including many Canadian whiskies - will remain exempt. Separately, a provisional U.S.-EU deal reportedly imposes a 15% duty on most EU exports to the U.S., with some “zero-for-zero” agriculture exceptions, but the treatment of spirits and wine is still under discussion. In sum, whiskey exporters are watching a fluid landscape: U.S. and EU tariffs may yet snap back if trade talks falter, and Japan and Canada face new baseline U.S. levies in 2026.
These trade actions are already affecting shipment trends. U.S. distillers report that global demand for American whiskey cooled in 2025 due to trade frictions. The Distilled Spirits Council documented sharp export drops in Q2 2025: total U.S. spirits exports fell 9% year-over-year, with exports to Canada plunging 85% (to under $10 million), the UK and Japan each down about 23%, and EU shipments off roughly 12%. Notably, Canada, the UK, Japan and the EU made up roughly 70% of U.S. whiskey exports, so these declines were meaningful. Industry analysts point to retaliatory tariffs and import barriers as the primary cause. For instance, when the U.S. imposed import duties on Canadian goods, several Canadian provinces responded by briefly pulling U.S. whiskey from store shelves in early 2025. Even though most provinces have since resumed imports, the episode shows how sensitive the market is to cross-border politics. Similarly, U.K. Scotch whisky still carries a standing 10% U.S. duty (a legacy of earlier tariffs). The net effect is that whiskey producers on both sides of the Atlantic are bracing for whatever tariffs finally hold in 2026 - and shifting their plans accordingly.
The uncertainty has already prompted concrete moves by some companies. For example, bourbon giant Jim Beam announced it will halt production at its Kentucky distillery for all of 2026, explicitly citing “uncertainty around [trade] tariffs” and slowing demand. Industry observers note this is not an isolated case: with tens of millions of barrels aging (more on that below), producers are carefully considering inventory and risk. If the new U.S.-EU framework is fully implemented, American whiskey could lose its competitive price advantage in Europe - whereas if the EU restores duties, U.S. Bourbon exporters would need to find alternative markets. Conversely, a 15% U.S. tariff on Japanese whiskey (under the U.S.-Japan deal) may make bourbon comparatively cheaper in Japan, potentially boosting U.S. sales there. And Canada’s 35% tariff (even if largely waived for USMCA products) will keep any disruption on the table.
In short, by 2026 whiskey brands and exporters must keep trade policy at the forefront of strategy. High tariffs could distort prices - for example, raising the consumer price of Japanese whiskies in America or making U.S. bourbon uncompetitive in Europe. Industry experts advise preparing for both scenarios: hedge against retaliatory duties by shifting some focus to non-tariff markets or diversifying portfolios, while also pressing for permanent tariff exemptions in key regions. Distilleries should also leverage trade breaks: for instance, goods meeting USMCA rules are spared new U.S. duties, suggesting American and Canadian whiskey could flow freely between those markets even amid broader tariffs. Ultimately, 2026’s market balances will depend heavily on negotiations: a “free-trade” outcome could spur recovery for exporters, whereas a breakdown in talks might bring back the very trade barriers that rocked the industry a few years ago.
Introduction
Whiskey remains one of the world’s most storied and popular spirits, but by 2024 the industry showed clear signs of “growing pains.” After decades of nearly uninterrupted expansion, sales growth has decelerated and cost pressures have risen. For many whiskey businesses, 2024 felt like a reality check: raw materials (grain, barrels, labor) are more expensive, energy costs have climbed, and a cautious consumer climate has blunted demand. The U.S. bourbon boom of the 2010s has leveled off - Volumes fell ~1% in 2023 and another ~2% in early 2024. Scotch whisky also saw its first major sales declines in recent memory. In a word, the industry is no longer in “hyper-growth” mode.
Yet the fundamentals of whiskey remain strong: it is a premium product category with deep consumer affinity. The segment retains a solid cultural cachet worldwide. Critically, the industry has learned from past cycles. After the last boom-bust (2000s), distillers became more cautious, and today many are examining data carefully and targeting investments more narrowly. Brands that combine solid product quality with savvy marketing are likely to thrive. In the sections that follow, we examine key forces shaping the whiskey market in 2026 - from shifting demographics and new regions to product trends and industry consolidation - and discuss strategies for brand owners to navigate this more complex landscape.
Shifting Growth Patterns
The once-explosive growth of whiskey has recently moderated. In the U.S., the “bourbon bubble” appears to have deflated. According to industry reports, American whiskey’s volume grew rapidly through 2019-2021 but turned slightly negative by 2024. Distillers expanded capacity massively during the pandemic and early boom years, and now many are feeling the first corrective market forces. For example, contract distillers that had ramped up production for private-label brands are seeing lower-than-expected orders. The result is that American distilleries face larger inventories and have begun to trim production plans. One major U.S. distiller (MGP Ingredients) publicly announced cuts to its whiskey output in 2025 and refocusing on its own brands, reflecting this shift. Small and craft producers, which boomed post-2010, must fight harder for shelf space. As one analyst notes, growth in American whiskey is now “incremental” rather than explosive - companies must innovate or specialize to keep their piece of a market that is no longer doubling every few years.
Scotch whisky and other global whiskey regions have a similar story. After years of riding a premiumization wave, Scotch exports weakened: the Scotch Whisky Association reported an 18% drop in export value in the first half of 2024 (with volume down ~10%). Major markets like Europe and North America were flat or down, while demand in Asia (China, India) remained robust but was volatile. Notably, India has become the world’s largest import market for Scotch by volume - Indian imports hit a record 85 million bottles in H1 2024 even with very high tariffs. This surge was partly speculative; India’s government is planning to halve its 150% tariff on Scotch by 2026 (under a UK-India trade deal). In the meantime, whiskey brands tailored to Asian palates (often sweeter grain whiskies) have found new demand. In Western Europe, however, traditionals like Ireland, Spain and Germany show only modest growth and even slight declines as alternatives like wine and craft beer remain stiff competitors.
Overall, the industry is seeing a rebalancing: luxury and collectible items saturated the market and now give way to more stable mainstream demand. High-end releases that once flew off shelves are moving more slowly, prompting retailers to discount and producers to focus on core ranges. Consumers are being more selective - one drinks more cautiously in the face of economic uncertainty - but they didn’t abandon whiskey. In fact, 2025’s data suggest a return to normalcy: the extraordinary growth of 2010-2020 was not infinitely sustainable. Now, marketing and production strategies must match this new reality. As an industry veteran put it, whiskey has entered “a more mature phase,” where nuanced brand stories and consistent quality matter far more than sheer novelty.
A Growing Global Category: Whiskey’s New Frontiers
Despite the slowdown in core regions, whiskey remains a growing global category. Market research estimates that the worldwide whiskey market was about $61.5 billion in 2024 and could reach roughly $71.9 billion by 2028 (around a 4% compound annual growth rate). Much of this growth comes from new or developing markets. Asia leads the charge: beyond established whisky lovers in Japan, China, Korea and India, newer markets like Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines have shown rising interest in whiskey cocktails and imported brands. For instance, in addition to India’s huge import surge, Chinese whiskey consumption is expected to grow as younger urban consumers become more affluent (though reliable data are scarce). Latin America (especially Brazil and Mexico) is another frontier; tequila and rum have dominated there, but whiskey is gaining share as marketing and cocktail culture spread. Africa’s largest economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya) have started to see whiskey imports rise, albeit from low bases.
What’s driving these fronts? Income growth and cultural globalization are key. Whiskey’s image as a premium Western spirit appeals to aspirational middle classes in emerging economies. It also helps that local production has started in some markets: South Africa, India and Japan have vibrant distilling industries producing regional whiskey styles, boosting local marketing. Tourism and travel retail play a role too: duty-free shops expose more travelers to foreign whiskies, seeding demand for exotic brands back home.
Product innovation and segmentation are expanding whiskey’s reach further. Brands are creating variants tailored to local tastes: flavored or infused whiskies (e.g. cinnamon or spice-infused bourbon) are growing in markets like the U.S. and Asia where consumers enjoy bolder flavors. Non-alcoholic whiskey alternatives are appearing to serve wellness trends in Europe and North America. Distillers are also experimenting with mash bills and casks to create distinctive regional offerings (for example, Indian single malts aged in tropical conditions, or Italian whiskies finished in wine casks). Sales channels are evolving: e-commerce has become essential worldwide, and many distillers use direct-to-consumer clubs and online platforms, which can reach customers in far-flung markets faster than traditional importers.
In short, while U.S. and European whiskey markets mature, the global footprint of whiskey is still expanding. The next few years will see whiskey brands trying to harness growth in diverse regions - from Southeast Asia to Latin America - by aligning products and marketing to local cultures. Marketers should view these new frontiers as key outlets; tailoring strategies (flavor profiles, pricing, packaging) for each region will be crucial to capturing this incremental growth.
Premiumization and the Price Squeeze
One of the central trends over the past decade was premiumization: selling more expensive, higher-quality whiskey. However, by 2025 the premium strategy has encountered limits. In the American market, sales data show a clear pattern: ultra-premium whiskey (age-stated, collectible bottles) continues to grow modestly (roughly +6% in 2024), but premium-tier brands have leveled off and value or economy labels are declining. This suggests that while some affluent consumers still splurge on top-shelf bourbon or rye, the mass market is shifting either downwards or consolidating around key brands. A similar dynamic appeared in Scotch: a glut of old, rare casks resulted in high-end expressions becoming stuck inventory. Major Scotch retailer SWA notes that even 20- and 30-year-old single malts are moving more slowly, forcing price cuts or promotions on once-desired items. All told, the correlation between price and growth has weakened: consumers are no longer buying anything simply because it’s expensive and scarce.
Premium whiskey bottlings (seen above) still command attention, but their margins are under pressure as consumer demand softens and choice increases. The key implication for brand owners is that genuine value must back up premium pricing. In practice, this means investing in the aspects of your product that truly differentiate it. For example, a 12-year Bourbon with transparent mash bills, a long history, or innovative cask treatment can justify higher cost. Conversely, merely slapping a lofty age on a mass-market whiskey will no longer guarantee sales. Industry analysts emphasize that today’s buyers are more educated: they compare bottlings and expect any premium bump to be explained in quality terms. The old playbook of hype and story without substance is eroding. Successful brands in 2026 will be those that explain the craftsmanship behind their top-tier labels and do not overreach on price.
The current economy also influences premiumization. With inflation and cost-of-living concerns still on consumers’ minds, many whiskey drinkers have become price-sensitive. Data from key markets show this divide: in California, for instance, sales of luxury bourbon fell noticeably, whereas demand for entry-level Kentucky Straight and other American whiskeys was relatively resilient. Similarly, in parts of the EU where consumers face tight budgets, whiskey buyers are trading down to mid-range labels or mixing whiskey into cocktails. By contrast, markets or demographic groups with rising incomes continue to fuel the ultra-premium segment. This polarization suggests a “two-tier” market: a high-end minority and a mainstream majority, with fewer sales in the middle. For brands, the strategy is to play to your strengths. If you are established in super-premium, focus marketing on affluent buyers (collectors, luxury hospitality). If you’re a mainstream or craft brand, emphasize value and heritage - for example, highlighting local sourcing or sustainability to add perceived value without huge price increases. Broadly, the industry must balance aspirational luxury with accessible quality.
Overproduction and Glut Fears
Barrel aging warehouses are filling up. After record output, distillers face concerns of a whiskey “glut” in coming years. Another legacy of the boom years is ample inventory. U.S. distillers, in particular, produced record volumes in the early 2020s to meet growing global demand. Kentucky alone barreled roughly 2.7 million barrels of bourbon in 2022 - unprecedented levels. With demand stabilizing now, the concern is that supply will outstrip near-term sales, creating downward price pressure. Many smaller distilleries built new warehouses and contracted outsized production through large custom stills, only to see the market slow. This has left industry watchers warning of a bubble.
In response, leading players are shifting to a more cautious posture. Some major distillers have announced production cuts or delays in barrel-filling for 2025 and beyond, aiming to let inventories gradually work through without flooding the market. Others are converting excess whiskey into other products (e.g. liquorice infusions, localized brands) or selling under a broad range of labels to clear stock. Importantly, experts advise that brands not commit future resources until they fully gauge demand. Distilleries should consider contract distilling or private labels only on tight terms. Some are even buying back old stock to control supply: one tactic is releasing special cask-finished bottlings (the “oldest barrel you ever saw” releases) that use up very aged inventory while still commanding high prices. These releases have dual benefit: they reduce aging stock and create limited-edition marketing buzz. However, if overdone, even these can exacerbate a short-term surplus (if dozens of distillers all issue 15-year bourbons in the same quarter).
Globally, concerns are similar. In Canada, distilleries never scaled up as drastically as in Kentucky, but craft producers there still watch U.S. dynamics closely (since a large share of Canadian distillers’ business is U.S. exports). In Scotland, Speyside production has also ramped, and distillers there face the question of when to release more aged malt to avoid having too much high-age inventory. The general consensus among analysts is that the overproduction risk will likely self-correct over several years: either by natural attrition of weaker brands, or by market shake-out from mergers. But until that happens, many distilleries will be pruning costs and slowing down barrel-filling as much as possible. As one industry CEO put it, "We have plenty aging - let us sell what we have." In short, brands should align output with realistic growth projections and be ready to weather an interim oversupply.
Regional Shifts in the United States
U.S. whiskey demand varies widely by region. States differ in demographics, income, and beverage culture, so consumption patterns have shifted unevenly. For example, California - historically a boom-state for premium spirits - saw significant declines in its top-tier whiskey categories by 2024. High-end bottles and specialty releases that once flew off select shelves were now moving slower, suggesting that even wealthy Californians were pulling back on discretionary liquor spending. In contrast, Texas continued to show growth in its super-premium Bourbon and Rye segments, even though demand for lower-tier whiskey in Texas was flat or declining. Anecdotally, Texan consumers seem willing to pay for rare or novelty bottles, whereas Californian consumers were favoring well-known mainstream brands.
Similar mixed patterns appeared elsewhere. In Florida and Kentucky - two major whiskey markets - the highest price tiers shrank while mid-range and budget whiskey held steady. New York and Illinois showed modest growth in the premium segment, implying that urban centers still had dedicated whiskey drinkers, but across the board they too saw more moderate year-over-year gains. These contrasts imply that brand owners need micro-targeted strategies. A one-size-fits-all launch nationwide is riskier: it’s smarter to run separate campaigns or adjust pricing by state or channel. For instance, a brand might stress “heritage and handcraft” in affluent Northeastern markets, while highlighting “value and consistency” in markets that are more price-sensitive. Retail data suggests that actions like targeted in-store promotions (e.g. sampling at local venues) have been more effective in certain states than broad TV ads.
It’s also worth noting trends within categories by region. States with a strong local distilling scene - e.g. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Colorado - often show greater interest in locally-made bourbons or craft whiskeys. This provides an opening: smaller distillers should double down on regional pride, community events, and local sourcing. Meanwhile, regions with less local whiskey production might focus more on well-known national or imported brands and on cocktail culture. Ultimately, as one marketing expert advises, whiskey brands should “treat each state like a mini-market,” tuning distribution and marketing to local tastes. That could mean anything from bottle size variations to aligning with popular local festivals. By staying agile and regionally nuanced, brands can extract maximum growth even in a largely leveled domestic market.
Innovation as a Lifeline
With traditional sales slowing, innovation has become one of the strongest lifelines for whiskey brands. The past couple of years saw a proliferation of creative product developments aimed at delighting consumers and staying ahead of competitors. At the forefront is barrel experimentation: distillers now routinely finish whiskies in a variety of casks beyond the classic new-charred-oak. Wine-seasoned barrels (port, sherry, vermouth, rum, etc.) are used to add fruit, spice or botanical notes, appealing to enthusiasts and mixologists alike. In fact, by 2025 many distillers viewed cask innovation as a key selling point - even award-winning bottlings like a Japanese oak (“Mizunara”) finished bourbon have grabbed headlines. As one commentator noted, “Exploration [of wood] seems to be at an all-time high; brands are racing to meet demand for novel cask finishes.”. This is more than gimmickry; most of these finishes result in genuinely different flavor profiles (from coconutty to chocolatey), helping brands stand out on crowded shelves.
Other forms of product innovation are also on the rise. Some brands emphasize terroir and transparency to cultivate consumer trust. A few distillers are now marketing single-distillery “terroir whiskies” that highlight local ingredients (such as heirloom corn or barley from a specific region) and publication of complete mash bills. Others draw a narrative around the natural environment - e.g., how a particular creek’s water or climate affects the character. This approach taps into the same consumer desire for authentic stories that drives craft wine and beer purchases. Full transparency has helped build loyalty too: several brands openly disclose aging conditions (warehouse number, rack location) or even the percentage of each barrel in a blend, giving aficionados the kind of detailed info they used to only get by visiting a distillery’s archives.
Whiskey companies are innovating beyond the bottle, too. Ready-to-drink (RTD) whiskey cocktails and flavored whiskeys have proliferated, especially to attract younger drinkers. Globally, RTDs account for a growing share of spirits sales. For example, a Manhattan or Old Fashioned in a can reaches consumers who might not buy a whole bottle, and it travels easily into new markets. Similarly, flavored or spiced whiskey (honey-malted, vanilla, or cherry variants) are finding fans among women and newbies. These hybrid products often bypass trade constraints: many big companies produce RTDs locally and avoid import tariffs. The broader point is that new formats and adjacent categories are helping the whiskey category grow. Even wellness-oriented innovations appear: increasingly, brands offer 375ml or 700ml bottles (standards in many countries) to give smaller purchase options, acknowledging that “wellness culture” is moderating alcohol consumption.
By 2026 whiskey’s innovation playbook emphasizes meaningful, consumer-driven changes rather than just slick marketing. Cask diversity, ingredient transparency, and new ready-to-drink offerings are broadening whiskey’s appeal. Marketers should continue to invest in these creative areas - ideally in ways that align with brand identity - because they not only excite the market, they also help absorb some of the supply glut by creating additional sub-brands and limited editions.
Consolidation and M&A
As markets normalize, the whiskey industry is also consolidating. Over the past few years large companies and investors have been active buyers of aged stock, brands and distilleries. One pattern is major players acquiring bottlings and portfolios to strengthen premium ranges. A high-profile example: in early 2025 William Grant & Sons (maker of Glenfiddich, etc.) purchased the Famous Grouse and Naked Malt brands from Edrington. This move was widely seen as a bet on Scotch’s core blends, allowing Grant to expand its footprint in blended whiskey with two recognizable labels. In North America, similar activity is brewing. Venture-backed distributors and entrepreneurs are targeting distilleries with aging inventory. For instance, Redwood Empire (a California spirits company) acquired Savage & Cooke, a small Pennsylvania distillery, to boost its aging barrel reserves and production capacity. Allied Blenders & Distillers, India’s largest whiskey company, spent $4.6 million to buy two up-and-coming whisky brands and a gin distillery, signaling an international appetite for premium spirits in that market.
There are other angles to watch. Some global beverage conglomerates are shifting portfolios in response to consumer trends. For example, if whiskey margins stay tight, conglomerates like Diageo or Pernod Ricard might reallocate marketing spend toward booming categories (tequila, mezcal, or even cannabis-infused drinks, depending on region). Conversely, these giants could use their capital to buy aging distillery sites or malts to secure future supply. At the craft end, moderate-sized distillers that cannot achieve economies of scale may either double down on niche branding (to attract a sale to a larger acquirer) or seek mergers of equals to share distribution costs. In Canada, industry consolidation has been ongoing quietly as well, with a few large spirits firms buying up smaller brands or facilities.
For whiskey brand owners, the consolidation trend means a few things:
1) Access to capital: there may be potential buyers or investors, so current owners should polish their assets and financials.
2) Competitive pressure: as giants acquire more brands, smaller independents will face even stiffer competition and distribution hurdles.
3) Opportunity to partner: co-production deals and joint ventures can help share risk. Strategically, smaller distillers should build strong brand narratives or specialty products to be attractive acquisition targets, or else find merger partners before scaling stalls. Larger players, meanwhile, should scout not only for aged stocks but also for distribution networks in emerging markets (e.g. buying a Latin American distributor to place brands abroad).
In the near term (2025-26), we expect targeted acquisitions rather than mega-mergers. The economic environment and regulatory approvals tend to favor smaller deals. Still, any significant M&A (for example a multinational buying a regional whisky firm) could reshape pricing power and distribution. Marketers should thus stay alert to industry moves and consider alliances or brand placements: being the chosen partner in a cross-promotion or bulk deal could be as valuable as a straight sale in today’s market.
Strategic Recommendations for 2026
Based on the above trends, whiskey experts advise a focused set of strategies for brands in 2026:
- Emphasize Genuine Premiumization: Continue to offer a premium lineup, but ensure every price increase is justified by real quality or story. Invest marketing in explaining craftsmanship (e.g. “aged in 12-year-old barrels from the founder’s estate”) rather than assuming luxury price tags sell themselves. Avoid gimmicky super-premiums with little substance; authenticity will support long-term brand equity.
- Tailor to Local Markets: Customize strategy by region. Use market data to decide where to push high-end vs. value products. For instance, advertise super-premium releases in growth states like Texas, but promote your core portfolio with discount deals in retrenching areas like California. Consider localized packaging or collaborations (e.g. a limited whiskey series tied to a local festival) to resonate with regional consumers.
- Innovate Thoughtfully: Keep experimenting with product and marketing innovation, focusing on additions that truly excite consumers. Examples: uniquely finished cask editions, locally-inspired flavor variants, or eye-catching small-batch decanters. But be strategic: align innovations with brand DNA (a rustic distillery might emphasize wooden stills, whereas an urban brand might lean into modern cocktail integrations). Use consumer feedback or small test runs before broad releases.
- Practice Transparency and Trust: In communications and pricing, be open with customers. If you raise prices due to cost inflation or tariffs, explain it. Share sourcing stories (single-farm barley, responsible forestry for casks, etc.) to justify value. Transparency about origin and production builds loyalty. Also engage responsibly on social media and events - consumers want to feel connected to real people and values behind the brand.
- Align Production to Demand: Plan barrel production carefully. If sales are flat, resist filling more warehouses at full capacity. Consider contract aging or batch-distilling only enough to meet forecasted sales plus a small buffer. Some experts even suggest holding excess stock for long-term release instead of overshooting supply. If feasible, collaborate with other distillers or startups for flexible capacity (e.g. ferment or distill on contract to avoid sunk costs).
- Offer Contrarian Opportunities: While many distillers rush to sell, consider doing the opposite with certain assets. For example, hold back a few barrels of premium whiskey instead of releasing everything now - a limited future release could fetch much higher prices. This is speculative, but in a market where collectors may re-emerge, a “collector’s reserve” strategy can pay off. Alternatively, license older whiskey to cocktail or liqueur producers if the ready-to-drink segment is growing.
- Prepare for Consolidation: Finally, anticipate further industry consolidation. Maintain clean accounting and defined brand structures in case acquisition opportunities arise. Strengthen relationships with distributors and retailers (having favored-channel access makes your brand more attractive). For small players, consider partnerships or mergers with complimentary brands as a proactive step. If you plan to remain independent, focus on a niche that bigger companies are unlikely to replicate cheaply (for instance, a unique mashbill or a particularly local provenance) to justify your standalone value.
Conclusion
The whiskey industry in 2026 will be markedly different from the boom years of the past decade. As one recent analysis observes, the “golden era” of whiskey’s explosive global growth has given way to a complex, nuanced environment. U.S. whiskey faces an oversupply of barrel stock and a more fickle domestic consumer; Scotch and other imports face slower international growth and ongoing trade uncertainties. Yet whiskey’s core strengths endure: rich traditions, passionate drinkers, and a vast global presence. Market fundamentals (brand heritage, craft, taste) remain solid, and savvy brands will navigate this transition.
Success in 2026 will go to those who clarify and differentiate. Bottles with genuine age and quality should remain a priority. Brand storytelling - about history, process and origin - must cut through a crowded market. Thoughtful innovation (as discussed above) will attract consumers looking for novelty and value. Crucially, honest communication will foster loyalty when consumers have many choices. By focusing on authentic value, data-driven marketing, and prudent growth, whiskey marketers can not only survive but thrive. Even a tougher market will reward quality products and well-run brands.
The whiskey business is no longer a runaway train; it’s more like a finely-tuned engine that needs careful steering. Brands should expect the unexpected (in trade, demand or cost) and be ready to adapt. If they do so while maintaining the spirit of craftsmanship and storytelling that made whiskey beloved, they will find that the category’s long-term trajectory remains upward - albeit at a more measured pace.
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